The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Continued to Fluctuate Before the Chinese New Year, Spot Trades Slowed Down [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On February 10, 2026, the most-traded SHFE tin contract fluctuated slightly after a small rise, closing the morning session at 382,350 yuan/mt, up 3.42%. On the LME, three-month tin also moved in a volatile manner before weakening, temporarily quoted at $49,105/mt. After experiencing sharp rises and rapid declines earlier, the market gradually entered a pre-holiday consolidation phase.

From a macro perspective, on February 9, US Fed officials expressed differing views on the interest rate cut path, with Governor Milan and Atlanta Fed President Bostic releasing contrasting signals. Market expectations for a March interest rate cut remained low, but expectations for future rate cuts increased.

Fundamentals have entered the Chinese New Year rhythm, with domestic logistics largely stalled and various segments of the industry chain gradually entering the holiday mode. Most smelters have scheduled maintenance shutdowns, while downstream factories focus on year-end tasks. During the earlier price pullback phase, downstream users conducted some restocking, and the spot market has now turned sluggish, with transactions remaining low. Market attention has shifted to the post-holiday production resumption pace and potential updates from the overseas supply side.

Overall, tin market trading is expected to thin out ahead of the Chinese New Year, with price fluctuations driven more by sentiment. Tin prices are likely to remain volatile before the holiday, and attention should be paid to potential LME volatility risks arising from overseas macro developments and geopolitical events during the holiday period.