Polysilicon Costs Redefined, Module Prices Temporarily Hold Steady [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM February 9 News:

Silicon metal

prices

were dragged down by macro and capital sentiment. Futures prices fell last Thursday and Friday, with the most-traded contract hitting a low around 8,450 yuan/mt. After the futures decline, some downstream users and traders increased purchases from the futures market, mostly preparing for after the Chinese New Year. The fundamentals of silicon metal showed no major changes.

Production

SMM data showed national silicon metal production in January fell 5.5% MoM but was up 23.5% YoY. Driven by production cuts at a major northern enterprise and fewer production days in February, silicon metal production is expected to decline at a faster rate in February.

Inventory

Social inventory: SMM statistics as of February 5 showed total silicon metal social inventory in major regions was 562,000 mt, up 8,000 WoW (excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, etc.).

Polysilicon

prices

Over the weekend, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 48.2-59 yuan/kg, the N-type polysilicon price index was 52.58 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon was quoted at 49-51 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices remained stable temporarily over the weekend. The relevant cost verification was released over the weekend; it is understood that the tax-inclusive full cost of polysilicon may be set at 54.125 yuan/kg, and various manufacturers might make minor adjustments based on their own costs.

Production

Affected by shutdowns at top-tier enterprises, polysilicon production in February fell significantly MoM. Some other enterprises also implemented production cuts.

Inventory

Polysilicon inventory rose slightly. Order signing in the market was limited, and current production was not enough to cover short-term shipments, leading to the inventory increase.

Module

prices

Domestic module prices remained largely stable last week. Some enterprises had already started holiday shutdowns, so module prices were unchanged. Guidance on subsequent cost-based guidance prices was discussed in last week's meeting; module prices in 2026 are expected to be mainly influenced by costs, potentially improving the market competition landscape. Current distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules were quoted at 0.735 Yuan/W, 0.756 Yuan/W, and 0.760 Yuan/W, respectively; centralized Topcon 182/183 and 210N high-efficiency modules were quoted at 0.718 Yuan/W and 0.738 Yuan/W, respectively.

Production

This week and last week, most specialized module enterprises in China began holiday shutdowns. Integrated enterprises might see an increase in production schedules due to the decline in silver paste prices.

Inventory

Inventory maintained a slight decline last week. This week, due to logistics constraints, the rate of inventory decline is expected to narrow.

High-purity quartz sand

prices

Current domestic inner layer sand price was 50,000-60,000 yuan/mt, middle layer sand price was 15,000-30,000 yuan/mt, outer layer sand price was 13,000-20,000 yuan/mt; imported high-purity quartz sand price was 75,000-78,000 yuan/mt. The price of 33-inch quartz crucibles was 6,200-6,300 yuan/piece, and that of 36-inch quartz crucibles was 7,200-7,300 yuan/piece. The low-price range of quartz sand declined, and a leading enterprise has finalized the annual long-term contract price for imported sand.

Production

In February, quartz sand enterprises maintained expectations of a slight reduction in planned production. Domestic high-purity quartz sand enterprises cut production to match wafer demand and formulated production plans.

Inventory

At the beginning of 2026, crucible enterprises made reasonable purchases based on wafer production schedules, and the quartz sand inventory level continued to increase.

PV Glass

Price

3.2mm single-layer coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass was 17-18 yuan/m², with stable prices.

3.2mm double-layer coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass was 18-19 yuan/m², with stable prices.

2.0mm single-layer coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass was 10-10.5 yuan/m². Domestic glass prices remained largely stable in February, but some low-priced orders decreased, and the market transaction center edged up slightly.

2.0mm double-layer coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass was 11-11.5 yuan/m², with stable prices.

Production

Domestic operating rates remained stable recently, with no new blocked furnaces domestically. During the Chinese New Year holiday, glass furnace production was expected to proceed normally.

Inventory

Last week, glass days of inventories declined. This week, module-side purchases were largely completed, but glass production continued normally, and inventory levels were expected to start rising.