End of Strike at Chilean Copper Mine, LME Copper and SHFE Copper Rebounded in Sync Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Monday, February 9, 2026
Futures: On Friday night, LME copper opened at $12,857.5/mt, fluctuated downward initially to touch a low of $12,817/mt, then fluctuated upward, with copper prices' center gradually moving higher to touch a high of $13,065/mt, before consolidating and finally closing at $13,060/mt, a gain of 1.59%. Trading volume reached 25,600 lots, and open interest reached 325,000 lots, with the overall performance indicating bulls increasing positions. On Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper 2603 contract opened at 101,000 yuan/mt, fluctuated downward initially to touch a low of 100,340 yuan/mt, then the center of copper prices moved up in a straight line to touch a high of 101,820 yuan/mt, before fluctuating rangebound and finally closing at 101,490 yuan/mt, a gain of 1.49%. Trading volume reached 79,400 lots, and open interest reached 170,000 lots, with the overall performance indicating bears closing positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Conference Minutes] News:
(1) On February 6, Canadian mining giant Capstone Copper stated that the largest union at its Mantoverde copper-gold mine in Chile approved a new three-year labor contract, ending the strike that began on January 2 and paving the way for a return to normal production. Previously affected by the strike, the mine's production once fell to about 55% of normal levels.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: During the morning session on February 6, the SHFE copper 2602 contract showed a V-shape, opening at 99,540 yuan/mt. After opening, prices maintained a decline, probing a low of 97,960 yuan/mt, then rebounded slightly to touch a high of 100,840 yuan/mt, followed by a slight pullback and fluctuating between 99,730 yuan/mt and 100,510 yuan/mt. By the close, the price was 99,900 yuan/mt. The Contango spread between the front-month and next-month contracts ranged between 190 yuan/mt and 390 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE front-month copper ranged between a loss of 260 yuan/mt and 460 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, the intraday decline in copper prices effectively stimulated downstream restocking, coupled with concentrated release of Friday stockpiling demand. Against the backdrop of continuously tightening circulating supply, this pushed spot prices from a discount to a premium, with suppliers' sentiment to hold prices firm significantly strengthening. Additionally, some price-ratio locked cargoes from the previous period when the import window was open are expected to arrive gradually, potentially increasing supply in the short term. Meanwhile, downstream enterprises are gradually entering a holiday pace, with most top-tier enterprises having largely completed pre-holiday stockpiling, so actual procurement demand is expected to gradually weaken.
(2) Guangdong: On February 6, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was at a discount of 110 yuan/mt to 0 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average discount of 55 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 190 yuan/mt to 150 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 170 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price for Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 98,950 yuan/mt, down 2,615 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price for SX-EW copper was 98,835 yuan/mt, down 2,585 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, continuously lower copper prices improved market trading, and spot premiums have increased for four consecutive days.
(3) Imported copper: Warrant prices were $28-46/mt on February 6, QP February, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $36-52/mt, QP March, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $12-24/mt, QP March, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in mid-February.
(4) Secondary copper: The futures closing price was 99,900 yuan/mt at 11:30 on February 6, down 1,200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premiums/discounts were 40 yuan/mt, up 110 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Copper scrap prices fell 1,000 yuan/mt MoM on February 6. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 88,000-88,200 yuan/mt, down 1,000 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,127 yuan/mt, up 9 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 890 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, in the last week before the Chinese New Year, traders of copper scrap and secondary copper rod enterprises had started holidays, and market transactions were expected to be minimal.
Price: Macro perspective, the US dollar index retreated from highs, while persistent geopolitical risks such as the US-Iran negotiation deadlock and escalating military standoff provided support for copper prices. Supply side, arrivals of domestic cargoes increased, coupled with weak downstream demand, the overall market supply landscape was relatively loose. Demand side, downstream purchase willingness declined as the Chinese New Year approached. Overall, copper prices were expected to hold up well today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]