Polysilicon Quotation Rises WoW, Wafer Prices Temporarily Stabilize and Await Further Observation [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Conference Summary]

SMM February 4 News:

Silicon Coal

Price: Silicon coal prices held steady this week, with the price range in Shaanxi at around 820-900 yuan/mt, the average price of non-caking silicon coal in Xinjiang at about 855 yuan/mt, the price range of caking silicon coal at approximately 1,300-1,650 yuan/mt, the average price of silicon coal in Inner Mongolia at around 1,260 yuan/mt, the average price of silicon mixed coal in Gansu at about 930 yuan/mt, and the average price of pellet coal at approximately 1,050 yuan/mt.

Supply: The supply side continued to schedule orders based on the produce-to-sales model, but with some coal washing plants on holiday, overall supply showed a contraction trend.

Demand: With the weekly operating rate of downstream silicon plants relatively stable, demand remained primarily driven by rigid needs.

Silicon Metal

Price: Yesterday, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,300-9,400 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was at 9,400-9,600 yuan/mt, flat from the previous day. Futures prices moved sideways near 8,800-8,900 yuan/mt. Downstream enterprises and traders had bid expectations mostly below the futures level, and market transactions were sluggish.

Production:

Domestic silicon metal production in January was 375,500 mt, down 5.5% MoM but up 23.5% YoY. In February, large plants in Xinjiang significantly reduced output, combined with the further impact of output cuts from large plants in Inner Mongolia and Sichuan in January, and fewer production days. Silicon metal production in February is expected to decrease significantly by about 27.1% MoM.

Inventory:

Social Inventory: According to SMM statistics, the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 554,000 mt as of January 30, down 2,000 mt WoW (excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, etc.).

Silicone

Price

DMC: The transaction price yesterday was 13,800-14,000 yuan/mt, holding steady WoW. As midstream and downstream enterprises gradually entered the holiday period, market trading activity softened this week.

D4: The quotation yesterday was 13,900-15,000 yuan/mt, flat WoW.

107 Silicone Rubber: The quotation yesterday was 14,200-14,800 yuan/mt, unchanged WoW.

Raw Rubber: The quotation yesterday was 14,600-15,000 yuan/mt, steady WoW.

Silicone Oil: The quotation yesterday was 15,200-15,800 yuan/mt, holding flat WoW.

Production:

Domestic silicone DMC production in January was about 203,900 mt, down approximately 4.85% MoM and down about 7.61% YoY. With the approaching Chinese New Year holiday in February, the overall market will gradually enter a closed state. To reduce the risk of inventory buildup, the production pace on the supply side is planned to be further adjusted. Based on daily average production (January calculated with 31 days, February with 28 days), daily production in February is expected to decrease by about 7% compared to January.

Inventory:

In January, influenced by concentrated restocking in the midstream and downstream sectors, an increase in export orders driven by the cancellation of preferential export tax rebate policies (stimulating a rush to export), and downstream restocking ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday, the inventory of upstream monomer enterprises fell by approximately 11.28% MoM.

Polysilicon

Price:

The quoted price for N-type recharging polysilicon is 48-59 yuan/kg, granular polysilicon is 49-51 yuan/kg, and the polysilicon price index is 52.45 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices rose, with the Saturday polysilicon enterprise meeting and the February 5 PV meeting, coupled with a significant drop in silver prices, giving polysilicon enterprises confidence to raise prices. The highest enterprise quote increased to 63 yuan/kg. However, market acceptance of high prices is low. The actual transaction status still needs to be monitored based on tomorrow's meeting and silver price trends.

Production:

Domestic polysilicon production in February is expected to decline significantly, primarily due to production cuts/shutdowns by top-tier enterprises. Overall startup rates this week met expectations.

Inventory:

Polysilicon inventory continued to rise this week amid market confusion and limited new contracts. Inventory may continue to increase.

Wafer

Price

The market price for 18X wafers is 1.2-1.25 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers is 1.3-1.35 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers is 1.5-1.55 yuan/piece. Wafer prices remained stable this week. Recently, significant wild swings in metal prices have prompted cell and module sectors to face re-pricing, with wafer enterprises adopting a wait-and-see approach toward raw material price increases.

Production

Wafer production schedules in February are expected to decrease by approximately 3%. According to a survey, most wafer enterprises have not yet shut down furnaces, and some have plans to increase production. Toll processing orders in the market are recovering.

Inventory

Wafer enterprise inventory continues to increase. After the pullback in silver prices, it is not ruled out that solar cell plants will raise their production schedules for March to mitigate wafer inventory buildup for the month. Currently, total wafer inventory is approaching reasonable levels.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price

Currently, the price of domestic inner-layer sand is 55,000-60,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand is 20,000-30,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand is 15,000-20,000 yuan/mt. The price of imported high-purity quartz sand is 74,000-76,000 yuan/mt. The price of 33-inch quartz crucibles is 6,000-6,200 yuan/piece, and 36-inch quartz crucibles is 7,000-7,400 yuan/piece. Overall prices have remained stable recently.

Production

Quartz sand enterprises' production schedules in February are expected to decrease slightly, with domestic high-purity quartz sand enterprises aligning production cuts with wafer demand to formulate production plans.

Inventory

At the beginning of 2026, crucible enterprises made reasonable purchases based on the wafer production schedule, and the quartz sand inventory level continued to increase.