Oil Prices Rose, Most Metals Gained, LME Tin and Stainless Steel Up Over 1%, NY SHFE Silver Down More Than 1% [Overnight Market]

SMM April 17 News:

Metals Market:

Overnight, domestic base metals generally rose. SHFE copper fell 0.06%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.97%, SHFE lead fell 0.98%. SHFE zinc rose 0.08%. SHFE tin rose 0.05%. SHFE nickel rose 0.11%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.42%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 0.72%.

Overnight, ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore rose 0.45%, stainless steel rose 1.39%, rebar rose 0.42%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.33%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal rose 0.28%, coke rose 0.74%.

Overnight, overseas metals generally rose. LME copper fell 0.26%. LME aluminum rose 0.55%, LME lead fell 0.99%. LME zinc rose 0.6%. LME tin rose 1.31%. LME nickel rose 0.41%.

Overnight Precious Metals:COMEX gold fell 0.26%, COMEX silver fell 1.47%. Overnight SHFE gold rose 0.17%, SHFE silver fell 1.43%.

As of 7:02 AM on April 17, overnight closing prices:

Macro Front

China:

[Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: Launching 2026 Central Fiscal Support for Urban Renewal Action]The General Office of the Ministry of Finance and the General Office of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a notice on launching the 2026 central fiscal support for urban renewal action. The notice stated that the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will select, through competitive evaluation, certain cities with strong foundational conditions, high enthusiasm, and distinctive features, to integrate various resources at the city level, explore the establishment of guarantee mechanisms for funding, land use, finance, and other key factors, and form a coordinated effort. The central government will provide fixed-amount subsidies to selected cities. Selected cities will formulate urban renewal work plans, coordinate the use of central and local funds, significantly improve urban infrastructure levels, enhance the living environment in old districts, refine laws and regulations, planning standards, investment and financing mechanisms, and related supporting policies, and explore replicable and scalable mechanisms and models for urban renewal. In 2026, the scope of central fiscal support for urban renewal covers prefecture-level and above cities, with no more than 15 cities to be selected.

[State Administration for Market Regulation: Dynamically Adjusting CCC Certification Catalog to Avoid Low-Price, Low-Quality Involution-Style Competition]The State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) deployed a nationwide special campaign to safeguard the bottom line of CCC certification, strengthening CCC certification supervision across the entire chain and in all dimensions to create a safe and reassuring consumer environment. Compulsory product certification, commonly known as CCC certification, is a conformity assessment system with market access nature established by the Chinese government in accordance with WTO rules and international practices. Products listed in the CCC certification catalog must obtain certification before they can be shipped, imported, or sold. This special campaign emphasized strictness. Comprehensive supervisory inspections will be conducted on designated certification bodies, focusing on key areas such as power banks, e-bikes, and gas-burning appliances, with effectiveness spot checks. The campaign will further advance the pilot reform of CCC certification marks, precisely crack down on fraudulent CCC certification marks, and strengthen product quality responsibility traceability. A SAMR official stated that, to further strengthen source governance of product quality and safety, the CCC certification catalog will be optimized with dynamic management, and research will be conducted to bring products involving industrial safety, public safety, and personal health safety under CCC certification management. In response to issues arising after some products in the CCC certification catalog adopted self-declaration evaluation, such as some enterprises failing to fulfill quality responsibilities and false commitments leading to declining product quality, SAMR has switched 16 product categories, including small-power motors and automotive safety glass, to third-party certification management. Certification and detection institutions are required to conduct cost accounting and charge reasonable fees based on publicly disclosed standards after accounting, to avoid low-price, low-quality involution-style competition. (CCTV News)

[National Energy Administration Deploys Nationwide Special Campaign to Improve Power Supply Quality]Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration issued a notice, organizing local government departments, power grid enterprises, user enterprises, industry associations, and other parties to work in coordination. Focusing on new requirements for power supply quality arising from the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, the cultivation and expansion of emerging industries, and the forward-looking development of future industries, the campaign centers on addressing key issues such as voltage sags. Targeting full coverage of terminal monitoring for new quality productive forces-related enterprises sensitive to power quality, and significantly reducing the impact of voltage sags on key power supply lines on the production and operations of new quality productive forces-related enterprises, a series of specific measures were proposed. The special campaign for power supply quality improvement will be implemented over three years, with all tasks to be fully completed by the end of 2028, driving stronger power supply assurance capabilities for high-quality development of new quality productive forces, broader coverage, more effective support, and more efficient service response, striving to address the "lingering concerns" of new quality productive forces development and providing safer and more efficient energy and power support for high-quality economic and social development. (National Energy Administration)

[Chinese Research Team Pioneers Green Extraction Technology for Critical Metals]A research team composed of Researcher Gao Jun and Professor Li Chaoxu from the Qingdao Institute of Bioenergy and Bioprocess Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the National Key Laboratory of Solar Energy Photoelectric Conversion and Utilization, together with Researcher Jiang Lei from the Technical Institute of Physics and Chemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, successfully developed a universal heavy metal ion membrane separation method inspired by biological calcium ion channels. This method can efficiently, greenly, and selectively extract uranium, copper, gold, and other heavy metal resources critical to new energy, and is expected to solve the long-standing challenges of high pollution, low efficiency, and high energy consumption in traditional heavy metal resource extraction technologies. (CCTV News)

[Nanjing: Expanding Housing Provident Fund Cross-Regional Loan Coverage to All of Anhui Province] The Nanjing Housing Provident Fund Management Center issued a notice to optimize housing provident fund usage policies. It specified that the scope of housing provident fund cross-regional loans will be expanded to cover all of Anhui province. Building on the existing 17 cities in Jiangsu and Anhui provinces, the cross-regional loan coverage will be extended to all of Anhui province. Housing provident fund contributors in all 29 cities across Jiangsu and Anhui provinces can apply for housing provident fund loans from the Nanjing Housing Provident Fund Management Center when purchasing property in Nanjing. Nanjing housing provident fund contributors purchasing owner-occupied housing in any city in Anhui province can process housing provident fund purchase withdrawals and loan repayment withdrawals in accordance with Nanjing's relevant policies, without restrictions based on the contributor's workplace or household registration location.

[Zhengzhou: Adjusting the Upper Age Limit for Housing Provident Fund Personal Housing Loan Borrowers]The Zhengzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center issued a notice on adjusting the upper age limit for housing provident fund personal housing loan borrowers. After deliberation, it was decided to adjust the upper age limit. For employees with delayed retirement applying for housing provident fund personal housing loans, subject to a maximum loan term of no more than 30 years, the loan maturity age for males is extended from the original 65 to 68, and for females from the original 60 to 63. This notice takes effect from the date of issuance. Matters not covered herein shall be governed by existing policies, and where the state has other provisions, those provisions shall prevail.

US Dollar:

Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.12% to 98.2. US Fed Governor Miran stated that, given the inflation situation that existed before the Middle East conflict, he may again lower his interest rate cut expectations for this year. Miran said: "If I were writing my dot on the dot plot now, I would lean toward 3 cuts, maybe 4. I haven't decided yet." In March, Miran projected four 25-basis-point interest rate cuts this year, but he indicated that the pace of cuts could slow down as price trends became "less favorable." Former US Treasury Secretary Paulson called on the US government to develop a contingency plan to prevent a potential collapse in demand for US Treasuries. He warned that such a scenario would have "extremely serious" consequences. Paulson said: "We need an emergency response plan that is targeted and short-term, prepared in advance, and ready to be activated once a tipping point is reached." Paulson noted that if the $31 trillion US Treasury market were to malfunction, it would be fundamentally different from the financial crisis he dealt with during his tenure two decades ago. "It was already bad then, but the government still had fiscal space to address the credit crisis. But if a US public debt crisis occurs, hitting a tipping point where the government tries to issue Treasuries but the US Fed is the only buyer, and Treasury prices fall while interest rates rise, that would be a very dangerous situation." For years, US budget experts have warned of a potential "doom loop": as government debt continues to expand, investors demand higher yields, driving up government interest expenses and further widening the fiscal deficit. In an extreme scenario, if the Treasury cannot raise enough funds to pay interest or principal, the market generally believes the US Fed would have to step in as an emergency buyer. Paulson said, "Once it happens, the shock will be very severe, so we must be prepared for this possibility." According to the CME FedWatch tool: the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the US Fed in April was 0.5%, with a 99.5% probability of holding rates unchanged. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut by June was 1.4%, with a 98% probability of holding rates unchanged and a 0.5% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike. (Jin10 Data)

Additionally, on the data front, US initial jobless claims fell last week, indicating that labour market conditions remained stable, although employers remained cautious about hiring new workers as the Middle East conflict cast a shadow over the economy. The latest data showed that US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 fell by 11,000 to 207,000, below the market expectation of 215,000. Initial jobless claims this year have remained within the range of 201,000 to 230,000. While layoffs remained low, the oil price shock from the US-Israeli war against Iran may have hindered hiring. Economists noted that the labour market had already been in a state of stagnation before the war broke out, attributing it to the uncertainty brought by Trump's sweeping import tariffs and mass deportations. Economists said the Middle East conflict was just another layer of uncertainty for businesses. (Jin10 Data)

Macro Front:

Today, data including the eurozone February seasonally adjusted current account and the eurozone February seasonally adjusted trade balance will be released. Also worth watching: 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly will deliver a speech.

Crude Oil:

Overnight, both oil futures rose, with WTI up 1.72% and Brent up 3.46%. The market was concerned about whether renewed US-Iran peace negotiations could ease supply disruptions. The US launched an operation codenamed "Economic Fury" against Iran, imposing maximum economic pressure. The Iranian armed forces stated that Iran's military was fully prepared for defense. (Jin10 Data)

US President Trump said he expected a deal with Iran to be announced soon, claiming the deal would bring the US "free oil" and "free passage through the Strait of Hormuz." When asked about the economy and oil prices, Trump said current oil prices were lower than previously expected. He said: "If you look at oil prices and what we're paying, it's about half of what people originally expected, provided you do what I had to do." He added: "I think the negotiations are going very well right now. If a deal is reached, it will be announced soon, and it will give us free oil and free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Everything will be fine. I think oil prices will be even lower than before." (Jin10 Data)

CITIC Securities pointed out that the US-Israel-Iran conflict has effectively created three fault lines: oil price shocks on the energy front, physical disruptions on the supply front, and leverage games on the geopolitical front. The market's pricing of oil price shocks largely reflects cost-side pressure transmitting downstream, but this framework follows the old logic of a closed economy. Under global exposure, as ex-China supply capability is impaired by cost-side shocks, Chinese enterprises may see medium and long-term opportunities for margin expansion. As the world shifts from "efficiency first" to "security first," recurring conflicts will inevitably pose ongoing challenges to supply chains. Following three medium and long-term themes—accelerated electrification, order diversion and substitution, and supply chain diplomacy—actively going long on the resilience of China's supply chain will be an important investment theme for global investors to hedge against fluctuations and navigate through cycles.