【SMM Nickel Flash News】Scenario Simulation and Comparative Analysis of Saprolite and Limonite under the New HPM Formula

On April 16, 2026, the stainless steel market saw major shifts. The EU's move to cut quotas by 47% and double tariffs to 50% in July triggered panic buying in Europe. India extended BIS certification until late September to ensure supply flexibility. Supported by Indonesia’s HPM formula adjustments, export prices remain firm, with slight gains in Foshan 304 spot prices. Rising logistics costs due to Middle East tensions and new trade barriers are collectively pushing up global trade expenses.

Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) revised the HPM nickel ore formula in Quarter 2 of 2026, significantly raising the adjustment factor and including cobalt, iron, and chromium in pricing for the first time. This shift will increase base prices across all grades, particularly for low-grade ores used in hydrometallurgy, placing heavy cost pressure on the stainless steel and new energy industries. Supply remains tight due to delayed mining quota approvals and rising refining costs. Following the policy signal, international nickel futures have surged through key resistance levels. Analysts suggest that high raw material costs may become the new norm, with potential for further price hikes if refined nickel output drops or policy impacts exceed market expectations.

While Asian 304 2B cold-rolled coil prices remained stable last week, Chinese Taiwan’s export offers continued to climb. This surge is driven by increased production costs and firm pricing strategies from mills, further fueled by geopolitical instability in the Middle East. Chinese export offers stayed flat due to sluggish domestic demand; however, a stronger Chinese Yuan and rising local prices suggest potential hikes ahead. In raw materials, LME nickel prices rebounded by US$142, while Indonesian NPI prices faced further declines. Market participants expect continued volatility for Asian CRC as weak demand balances against rising input expenses.