Silver Market Price Review and Expectations Brief Commentary (April 16, 2026) [SMM Silver Market Weekly Review]

[Price Review] The US-Iran two-week ceasefire agreement continued to boost market sentiment. This week, precious metal prices rebounded amid the possibility of a US-Iran ceasefire agreement and news of Trump's tariff exemptions. However, as the weekend approached, uncertainties emerged in ceasefire negotiations, with short-term geopolitical tensions showing no substantive easing. Inflation concerns reinforced the US Fed's hawkish signals, limiting gains in precious metal prices. Short-term macro sentiment was generally warm, with capital flow momentum slightly recovering, but industrial demand had not recovered. Suppliers moved inventory and shipped to delivery warehouses, and the spot market supply appeared slightly in surplus. Gold/silver ratio side, as of April 15, the LBMA gold/silver ratio stood at 61x. During the short-term precious metals rebound, silver price movements were slightly stronger than gold prices.

[Key Data]
Bearish:
US March Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9% MoM and 3.3% YoY, hitting the highest level since 2024
IMF downgraded growth expectations — the International Monetary Fund cut its 2026 global economic growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%
Bullish:
US March Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 4% YoY, the highest since February 2023, but significantly below market expectations of 4.6%

Data and macro news releases to watch next week include:
April 17: US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11, US April Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US March industrial production MoM, and Eurozone CPI data.
April 21: Confirmation hearing for Fed Chairman nominee Warsh
Geopolitics side, the temporary ceasefire agreement will expire on April 22. Whether the ceasefire is extended or a permanent agreement is reached will have a significant impact on global market risk appetite.

[Price Forecast] Although the short-term US-Iran ceasefire foundation remains fragile, the macro atmosphere next week is expected to be relatively bullish, and market traders still hold optimistic expectations regarding the trajectory of the US-Iran conflict. China fundamentals side, just-in-time procurement demand from silver nitrate, silver powder, and silver paste enterprises showed no signs of improvement, and the slight inventory buildup in the spot silver ingot market is unlikely to improve in the short term. After the SHFE April delivery concluded, although some banking institutions and traders actively purchased and built positions, downstream manufacturers showed low enthusiasm for purchasing. The rising trend in spot silver ingot social inventory is unlikely to reverse, and spot transaction expectations are expected to remain at parity or may even see slight discounts. Although silver prices may continue to rebound next week amid the macro atmosphere, the trend remains full of uncertainty. Before the US Fed sends a clear interest rate cut signal and the precious metals bull market resumes, silver prices will continue to consolidate in a range-bound pattern.