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SMM Morning Comments (May 11): Shanghai base metals fell across the board after US stocks declined overnight

iconMay 11, 2021 10:00
Source:SMM
Nonferrous metals on both SHFE and LME declined across the board on Tuesday morning, following a sell-off in tech stocks that weighed down major US indexes overnight.

SHANGHAI, Mar 11 (SMM) — Nonferrous metals on both SHFE and LME declined across the board on Tuesday morning, following a sell-off in tech stocks that weighed down major US indexes overnight.

Shanghai base metals fell across the board in overnight trading. Copper fell 1.97%, aluminium declined 1.84%, zinc shed 2.28%, tin weakened 1.63%, lead slid 0.92% and nickel dropped 2.58%.

The LME complex fell across the board on Monday. Nickel plunged 1.88% to lead the losses, zinc fell 1.02%, aluminium weakened 0.12%, copper decreased 0.16%, lead went down 0.45% and tin dropped 0.23%.

Copper: Three-month LME copper fell 0.16% to end at $10,395.5/mt on Monday, and is likely to trade between $10,300-10,380/mt today.

The most-active SHFE 2106 copper contract went down 3.2% to close at 75,230 yuan/mt in overnight trading, and it is expected to move between 75,000-75,500 yuan/mt today, while spot premiums will be seen at 100–20 yuan/mt.

All the three major indexes in the US closed down, while the US dollar index rebounded from its low level. The negative sentiment affected the commoditie. On the spot side, as the delivery is approaching, the spot discount should narrow. However, the strong rise of copper prices suppressed some traders who bought spots and sold futures last Friday. The discount still expanded to around 100 yuan, which made it difficult to improve the overall buying. The discount was weaker than the expected narrowing performance. During the delivery cycle this week, it is expected that traders will still be the main trading body in the market.

Aluminium: Three-month LME aluminium fell 0.1% to close at $2,529.5/mt on Monday. It is expected to trade between $2,500-2,580/mt today.

The most-liquid SHFE 2106 aluminium contract fell 1.84% to settle at 19,720 yuan/mt on Monday night, and is likely to trade between 19,500-20,000 yuan/mt today.

Zinc: Three-month LME zinc fell 1.02% to close at $2,994.5/mt on Monday. Zinc stocks at LME-listed warehouses rose 878 mt to 262,000 mt. US debt traders expected the inflation rate to rise to the highest level since 2006 in the next five years, but it is unlikely that the Fed will raise interest rates in the near term. In addition, the Sentix investor confidence index in May in the Eurozone highlights the expectation of global economic recovery, and it is expected that LME zinc will still fluctuate at a high level. The contract is likely to trade between $2,970-3,030/mt today.

The most-liquid SHFE 2106 zinc contract fell 2.28% to end at 22,300 yuan/mt in overnight trading. With high zinc prices in the spot market, social inventories rose slightly. With the ferrous metals and zinc prices rising all the way, the consumption of the downstream enterprises weakened, and the fundamental support was weak. China census data will be monitored today. The SHFE zinc contract is expected to move between 22,300-22,800 yuan/mt today, while spot premiums for domestic 0# Shuangyan will be seen higher at 20-30 yuan/mt.

Nickel: The most-active SHFE 2106 nickel contract fell 2.58% to close at 130,040 yuan/mt on Monday. Open interests fell 2,953 lots to 116,000 lots. The contract is likely to keep fluctuating at high today.

Lead: Three-month LME lead settled 0.45% lower at $2,219/mt on Monday. The contract will test support of from $2,200/mt today.

The most-active SHFE 2106 lead contract went up 1.82% to close at 15,345 yuan/mt on Monday night. The consumption in the spot market still cannot support SHFE lead to continue to rise. Secondary lead premium expanded yesterday, and the bulk order transaction was tepid. The contract will test support of from five-day moving average today.

Tin: Three-month LME tin closed down 0.23% at $29,800/mt on Monday. High domestic production and inventories put pressure on tin prices, and it is expected that LME tin will fluctuate at high in the near term. Pressure above will be seen from $30,500 /mt today. Support below will be seen from $29,000/mt today.

The most-liquid SHFE 2107 tin contract fell 1.46% to close at 192,850 yuan/mt on Monday night. Under the pressure of supply growth, the contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term. Pressure above will be seen from 198,000 yuan/mt today. Support below will be seen from 191,000 yuan/mt today.

Market commentary
Copper
Aluminium
Zinc
Nickel
Lead
Tin

For queries, please contact Michael Jiang at michaeljiang@smm.cn

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