SHANGHAI, Mar 4 (SMM) — Nonferrous metals on both SHFE and LME mostly cruised lower on Thursday morning following overnight declines on Wall Street as bond yields rose again.
Shanghai base metals ended mostly lower in overnight trading. Copper edged down 1.12%, zinc weakened 2.05%, nickel shed 6%, lead fell 0.68% and tin lost 1.61%, while aluminium added 0.86%.
The LME complex performed similarly on Wednesday. Nickel plunged 7.46% to lead the losses, copper fell 0.57%, zinc weakened 2.46%, tin slid 1.91% and lead edged down 1.83%, while aluminium gained 0.16%.
Copper: Three-month LME copper fell 1.71% to end at $9,118/mt on Wednesday, and is likely to trade between $9,060-9,160/mt today.
The most-active SHFE 2104 copper contract went down 1.17% to close at 67,020 yuan/mt in overnight trading, and it is expected to move between 57,600-58,100 yuan/mt today, while spot premiums will be seen at 10-90 yuan/mt.
Last night, US employment of ADP in February was far lower than expected and the previous value, indicating that the recovery of the labor market was still difficult. In addition, as the government prepares to introduce new fiscal stimulus measures, investors have increased their bets on US economic growth and inflation, with inflation expectations hitting a ten-year high, US Treasury bond yields soaring again, US dollar index rising at night, technology stocks leading the benchmark index of US stock market falling, and copper futures falling sharply at night. On the spot side, the spot quotation is expected to further stop falling and rebound in the active buying.
Aluminium: Three-month LME aluminium fell 0.43% to close at $2,215/mt on Wednesday, with open interest rising to 704,000 lots. It is expected to trade between $2,100-2,300/mt today.
The most-liquid SHFE 2104 aluminium contract rose 0.86% to settle at 17,565 yuan/mt on Wednesday night, and is likely to trade between 17,200-17,600 yuan/mt today. News also stimulated capital sentiment, and the authenticity and changes of long and short positions sentiment should continue to be monitored. Changes in stocks will be monitored on the fundamentals. Spot premiums for the contract will be seen higher at 40-0 yuan/mt.
Zinc: Three-month LME zinc fell 2.42% to close at $2,781/mt on Wednesday. Zinc stocks at LME-listed warehouses fell 275 mt to 269,200 mt. Overnight, the US dollar once again returned to the high point of 91, and the market of LME zinc was suppressed by the US dollar. The rebound rate returned to the low level in the past two days, and short positions continued to suppress LME zinc. In the near future, if there is no significant market positive news, the contract will still fluctuate at low. US monetary easing policy will be monitored in the near term. The contract is likely to trade between $2,750-2,800/mt today.
The most-liquid SHFE 2104 zinc contract fell 2.14% to end at 21,240 yuan/mt in overnight trading. In the next two weeks, it may pass the high point of domestic inventories, when demand is expected to boost the contract. The formulation of domestic annual economic targets will be monitored in the near term. The SHFE zinc contract is expected to move between 20,900-21,400 yuan/mt today, while spot premiums for domestic 0# Shuangyan will be seen higher at 80-100 yuan/mt.
Nickel: The most-active SHFE 2104 nickel contract fell 6% to close at 134,020 yuan/mt on Wednesday. Open interests fell 1,341 lots to 101,473 lots. Overseas investors further fermented the news, causing nickel prices to fall sharply.
Lead: Three-month LME lead settled 1.57% lower at $2,042.5/mt on Wednesday. Looking from the trend in recent two months, LME lead is still running in the cycle of rising pattern, and LME lead stocks have not accumulated significantly. The decline is expected to be limited in the near term. The contract will test support from $2,000/mt.
The most-active SHFE 2104 lead contract went down 0.68% to close at 15,280 yuan/mt on Wednesday night. Recently, on the eve of China's two sessions, the unclear policy direction may have an impact on investor confidence, and it is still necessary to pay attention to the impact of carbon neutrality and emission reduction topics on the industry.
Tin: Three-month LME tin closed down 2.68% at $23,775/mt on Wednesday. As the government prepares to introduce new fiscal stimulus measures, investors have increased their bets on US economic growth and inflation, and speculation that the Fed may be closer to normalizing monetary policy than previously expected is also heating up. After the market experienced a big rise and fall, the long and short positions competition intensified. In addition, the recent stabilisation and rebound of the US dollar suppressed commodity prices, and Lun tin is expected to keep fluctuating in the near term. Pressure above will be seen from $25,500 /mt today. Support below will be seen from $23,000/mt today.
The most-liquid SHFE 2104 tin contract fell 0.75% at 176,690 yuan/mt on Wednesday night. The guidance of LME tin on the trend of SHFE tin should be monitored in the near term. Pressure above will be seen from 184,500 yuan/mt today. Support below will be seen from 170,000 yuan/mt today.
