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Policy Analysis of bulk Mineral products Industry in the United States

[us bulk Mineral Industry Policy Analysis] the past four years have been turbulent for the US commodity industry, and they have found themselves to be the pawn of the White House's aggressive trade policy. Now that Biden has won the election, what is the difference between the next president and his predecessor, and what will maintain the status quo?

SMM: the past four years have been turbulent for the US commodity industry, and they have found themselves to be the pawn of the White House in implementing aggressive trade policies.

Everything from tariffs on steel and aluminium to food subsidies to measures to increase liquefied natural gas exports have become tools for Mr Trump. Uranium, soybeans and rare earths, commodities that received little attention from previous US presidents, have become important elements for Trump to sign memos and issue executive orders, statements or tweets.

Now that Biden has won the election, what is the difference between the next president and his predecessor, and what will maintain the status quo?

Steel and aluminum

The biggest problems facing steel and aluminum are very similar, and the two industries, especially steel, are top priorities for the Trump administration. Biden will not abolish steel and aluminum tariffs immediately after taking office, and market participants have adjusted tariffs of 25% on imported steel and 10% on aluminum.

Removing tariffs in these two industries is like grabbing a falling knife: it will alienate Midwestern voters who helped Biden win the election. it will also lead companies such as American Steel and Century Aluminium, as well as the United Steelworkers union, to apply for some new trade protectionist measures.

Biden is more likely to maintain tariff measures and form alliances with the European Union, Japan and Canada to deal with the world's largest steel and aluminum producers. The Trump administration has publicly launched a multilateral trade partnership, so this is a big policy change. However, it is unclear what steps Biden will take to further strengthen the protection of the two industries that are asking for more help.

LNG

Trump administration officials toured Europe and Asia in 2019 to peddle the US LNG, which it calls "free gas" and "American liberals", but sales have been reduced by trade wars, concerns about the environment of Permian basins, and other related emissions from the production and transportation of LNG.

Biden did not state his position on LNG on the campaign website, but he announced plans to reduce methane emissions and burning, which European buyers welcomed. The current six LNG export terminals were vice president when Biden was approved by the Obama administration.

Political observers believe Biden will take the United States back to the Paris Climate Agreement, an environmental agreement signed by nearly 200 countries to reduce greenhouse gas pollution. Us LNG exporters of LNG, may benefit as global buyers seek greener or carbon-neutral requirements.

Mike Sommers (Mike Sommers), director of the American Petroleum Institute, said, "We are most worried about the decline in US LNG exports to Asia and Europe as a result of the trade war." For Biden, who has long been a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, he is fully aware of the importance of US energy independence to foreign policy. "

Petroleum

Energy will be an important topic in the US trade negotiations.

Sandy Fielden (Sandy Fielden), director of (Morningstar Inc.) research at Morningstar, believes that "once the production of shale oil, liquefied petroleum gas and natural gas exceeds domestic demand, the United States will become an energy exporter." The Biden administration will implement targeted trade policies.

"Trade uncertainty will be reduced after Biden takes office, which is good for oil prices," said Edward Moya (Edward Moya), a senior market analyst at Anda (Oanda).

Helima Crawford (Helima Croft), capital markets analyst at Royal Bank of Canada, believes Biden will rejoin the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and will come into contact with sanctions against Iran. In the second half of 2021, Iran's oil exports will return to 1 million barrels per day.

Commodities
US elections
non-ferrous metals

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