Exclusive: SMM Morning Comments (Dec 14)

Published: Dec 14, 2017 10:25

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SHANGHAI, Dec 14 (SMM)－

Copper: With upper adhesive 60-day and 20-day moving average, LME copper may get some resistance of moving up. It is estimated to trade at $6,700-6,760/mt today. The SHFE copper 1802 contract is set to trade at 52,220-52,700 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the large price basis has driven premiums to rise, which is estimated to trade at 50-120 yuan/mt.

Aluminium: LME aluminium lacks support following rising inventory and increasing Chinese aluminium exports. It is estimated to trade rangebound at $2,000-2,025/mt today. Main contract of SHFE aluminium is likely to swing between 14,150 and 14,300 yuan/mt today, with spot premium at a discount of 140-100 yuan/mt.

Zinc: LME zinc may trade in a narrow range around the lower edge of the Bollinger Band, seeking opportunity to move upward. It is forecast to trade at $3,135-3,180/mt today. Market participants would look out for stronger cues with the release of several macroeconomic data sets. SHFE zinc is estimated to trade at 24,950-25,420 yuan/mt.

Nickel: Domestic NPI plants have low purchasing willingness, keeping the nickel ore prices low. Stainless steel plants are also not in full production mode. LME nickel is set to trade in a narrow range today whereas the main contract of SHFE nickel is to move at 88,600-90,100 yuan/mt. Spot nickel prices are heard at 88,400-89,900 yuan/mt.

Tin: LME tin has slumped for two days and is getting close toward the support level at $18,600/mt. However, it remains to be seen whether the support could continue as downward pressure continues. SHFE tin is also testing current support level at 132,000 yuan/mt following a slight drop last night. It is estimated to move at 132,000-134,000 yuan/mt. For the spot market, SHFE tin’s drop is dragging spot prices but the premium has been widening. We see spot prices to trade at 134,500-136,000 yuan/mt.

Lead: LME lead finished higher for four consecutive days but the upward momentum may not sustain further. We see lead to trade range-bound at relatively high levels.

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copper aluminium lead zinc tin nickel

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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