SMM Summit 2016: Which Direction Will Lead Price Go in 2017?

SHANGHAI, Nov. 16 (SMM) – In recent days, base metal prices surged across the board, with lead on the SHFE climbing above 17,000 yuan per tonne. What’s the outlook for lead price in 2017? 

“On market fundamental side, supply shortages of lead are expected to narrow in 2017 with easing of ore supply tightness, and consumption as a whole will be positive, with a steady growth from downstream sectors,” SMM lead analyst said at SMM 2016 China Metals Summit (CMS) on Nov. 10-11.

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In 2017, China’s output of refined lead will grow to 5.52 million tonnes, and demand will reach 5.56 million tonnes, SMM foresees.  

The dollar and other uncertainties will also influence lead price, and impact from liquidity will be smaller than other metals as the product is usually not investors’ choice for financing demand, SMM lead analyst told the attendees at the summit in Shanghai.  

“In the short term, there will be further rising room for lead price, but this will not become a trend,” SMM lead analyst added. 

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In 2017, SMM expects LME lead to trade at $ 1,600-2,200 per tonne, and China’s spot lead to range at 12,700-17,300 yuan per tonne.   

Lead price in China’s market has been on the downward track from 2012 to early 2016, down from 15,000 yuan in 2012, to 14,000 yuan in 2013, 13,800 yuan in 2014, and to 13,000 yuan in 2015, according to SMM data.

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