[SMM Analysis] Procurement and Sales Sentiment Gradually Recovered; Nickel Salt Prices Rebounded Slightly

On April 16, 2026, the stainless steel market saw major shifts. The EU's move to cut quotas by 47% and double tariffs to 50% in July triggered panic buying in Europe. India extended BIS certification until late September to ensure supply flexibility. Supported by Indonesia’s HPM formula adjustments, export prices remain firm, with slight gains in Foshan 304 spot prices. Rising logistics costs due to Middle East tensions and new trade barriers are collectively pushing up global trade expenses.

【SMM Nickel Flash News】Given the significant variance in byproduct quality across nickel ore deposits, establishing a unified HPM for each grade remains a challenge. Consequently, SMM has developed multiple scenarios for both saprolite and limonite to serve as a benchmark for the new HPM formula and to provide a comparative analysis against SMM’s proprietary pricing

Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) revised the HPM nickel ore formula in Quarter 2 of 2026, significantly raising the adjustment factor and including cobalt, iron, and chromium in pricing for the first time. This shift will increase base prices across all grades, particularly for low-grade ores used in hydrometallurgy, placing heavy cost pressure on the stainless steel and new energy industries. Supply remains tight due to delayed mining quota approvals and rising refining costs. Following the policy signal, international nickel futures have surged through key resistance levels. Analysts suggest that high raw material costs may become the new norm, with potential for further price hikes if refined nickel output drops or policy impacts exceed market expectations.