Indonesian NPI Exports in 2024 Rose 13% YoY; Overseas Export Scope May Continue to Expand in 2025 [SMM Analysis]

SMM, March 12 - According to the Directorate General of Customs and Excise of Indonesia, the total export volume of NPI from Indonesia in 2024, January-December, was approximately 9.6422 million mt, up about 13% YoY. Exports to China totaled approximately 9.1563 million mt, accounting for 94.96% of Indonesia's annual exports, up about 9.4% YoY. In terms of export destinations, Indonesia's NPI exports have reached 12 countries and regions, including China, Taiwan (China), India, South Korea, the Netherlands, Turkey, the UK, Malaysia, South Africa, Italy, Germany, and Japan. In 2024, Germany and Japan were added as new export destinations, further expanding the overseas reach of Indonesia's NPI exports. From the perspective of global supply in 2024, the main supply growth remained concentrated in Indonesia. The commissioning of new capacity in Indonesia accelerated in 2024, despite the implementation of new policies on RKAB quota approvals for nickel ore and tightened export resource taxes. Indonesia's NPI production still achieved a YoY increase of 7.3%, along with the aforementioned export growth of 13%, remaining in the expansion territory. Demand side, China's dependence on Indonesian NPI has deepened. From the export share, it is evident that nearly 95% of Indonesia's NPI supply is absorbed domestically in China. This is attributed to China's leading position in global stainless steel capacity, its advanced steelmaking technology, and the diversity of its product processing, which have further strengthened global reliance on Chinese stainless steel. According to data from China's General Administration of Customs, China's total stainless steel exports in 2024 were approximately 5.89 million mt, up about 41.72% YoY. Against the backdrop of intensifying international competition, China's stainless steel trade has demonstrated resilience. Meanwhile, overseas demand for Indonesian NPI has shown a significant uptick, primarily due to the reduced supply of ferronickel, a key raw material for stainless steel. According to an SMM survey, global ferronickel production in 2024 decreased by approximately 11.12% YoY. Ferronickel capacity is mainly concentrated in Oceania, Latin America, Europe, and Asia, with raw material and finished product pricing relying on the LME. In 2024, LME nickel prices fell by approximately $6,025/mt compared to 2023. The fluctuating decline in nickel prices led to losses for major ferronickel smelters, prompting some to actively reduce production loads to minimize losses. European stainless steel mills, however, still face raw material procurement needs, resulting in increased reliance on Indonesian NPI. It is expected that as Indonesia's nickel industry further matures, the global supply scope of Indonesian high-grade NPI may expand further.

From the distribution of export destinations, in 2024, exports to India were approximately 180,000 mt, up about 107.6% YoY; South Korea (134,200 mt, up about 184% YoY); the Netherlands (87,700 mt); the UK (22,900 mt); Italy (21,100 mt); Malaysia (200 mt); and South Africa (600 mt).